MTF's World, MTF's World! Party Time, Excellent!

Posted by MTF at 10/11/2007 9:46 PM
Categories: uncategorized
Howdy folks,
   Well, not much exciting to pass on.  Would like to hear what's new with y'all if you get a chance to reply.  Obviously on the weather front, the way too mild Indian Summer has come crashing to a cool and cloudy fall.  Long range prognostics from the models indicate sort of an ugly start to next week with rain and clouds too, but then a milder march from Tuesday through the rest of the week.  We shall see.
   The offical NWS Winter Outlook has come out, and can be found here.  I also recently have received several questions from friends about how this winter will be.  I'm not sure if when people ask me that, if they think I have a clue how it will be.  And at times when I answer, I wonder if I truly do have a clue?!  Well below I'll describe a little bit about how I would possibly know anything about two to five months out and why the heck anyone would care.
   Normally me and my immediate office colleagues are forecasting for the next seven days, which is the time period most of you care about.  But I am also expected to put out high detailed forecasts due to such a small time resolution.  National offices within my agency are not expected to put out high resolution forecasts, however are often expected to go out longer in time because of the generalities in their forecasts.  One of these groups is the Climate Prediction Center and they are the issuers of three months and longer forecasts.  We have had training on how to interpret their forecast, and receive their initial thoughts well before the public has received them.  We are likely to understand their reasoning based on our training and therefore should be able to answer public questions, even though we don't directly issue the forecasts.
   So that's sort of how it works.  Why is it important?  Huge when it comes to commodities.  For instance, this upcoming winter many decision-makers have already had to decide on whether to not to invest in a current rate of energy for the winter or to play the market.  Obviously a cold winter would mean a higher demand for heating-dependent coal or gas.  This could possibly lead to extra spending for some businesses, universities, or other big providers who decided to play the winter as it comes, however those who bought it at a flat rate may win out.  A warm winter would cause the exact opposite.  Snowy winter leads to many decisions as well.  When I was in Kentucky during the winter of '04-'05, the pre-Christmas snow-storm that crippled the Ohio Valley used basically the whole salt supply of Kentucky in one swoop, yet winter had hardly begun.  Though we can't predict snowstorms more than a week out, we can predict a part of the country that may see more frequent storm tracks leading to heavy precipitation.
   So there.  I'm sure some of you (Luke) are saying how boring of a post this one was.  That means the next one will be better.  I guess I'm just into weather right now.  Go figure!  Tough to be into the Huskies right now, but I'm sticking with them.  For all those at NIU Homecoming this weekend, have a blast!  Wish I was there!  Huskie Marching Band ... THE PRIDE OF THE MIDWEST!!!

You know how we do it from the 'sota to the 'dota ... knucks and mmmbooyahs!
MTF
 

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