Seasons Question
Happy Monday...
Hope everyone had a great weekend. I had a suspected theory posed to me from an avid sweetcornforecast / Breeze reader and commenter M. Vujea. Here's what the Michigan native, now residing in Dayton, OH asks ...
Excellent question Vujea. And I'm afraid I cannot give a concrete answer but offer some "weatherman" thoughts. What you have noted about the seasons does indeed seem true recently. This past spring, colder than normal conditions were present Midwest-wide in April an May. In June and July, the heat stayed at bay in many locations from MN to OH. Rockford, IL didn't hit 90 degrees until late August, which was the furthest into the summer they had ever gone. Now, as we officially hit the autumnal equinox today, much of the county will be seeing above normal temperatures, and summerlike weather is in the forecast through this week. Here are some maps below showing exactly what Vujea says ...
Last autumn was quite mild, with some of the warmest Octobers on record in the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
This spring was very cool in much of the country.
But, while your observation may be true locally and recently, it is often tough to grasp long term trends and global and continental trends. For instance this "cool" spring, March-May, which seemed more like a late winter here in the U.S., was the 7th warmest globally since 1880.
Often too, precipitation can have a huge impact on temperatures. MN, IA, and WI saw a great deal of late season snow this past spring. Snow cover certainly played a role in modifying the springtime airmass over these states and can play a role in temperatures downstream (IL, MI, OH). Likewise in June and July, the massive rains of IA, WI, IL, and IN helped moisten the ground and certainly aided in keeping things cooler than normal (due to more evaporation). A drought on the other hand, can lead to less evaporation and warmer temperatures. It's a soil/temperature feedback issue, and something that has played a role during this wet 2008 in much of the Midwest.
So, while the seasons may have seemed to shift lately in God's Country ... the U.S. Midwest ... both long term trends and large geographical trends may or may not show that as well. "Shifting seasons" or "extended and shortened seasons" though, whether it be globally or regionally seem like they would be possible with climate change. And when speaking of "global warming" or climate change, that trend has basically continued statistically unabated over this decade, at least given the data we have currently and in the past.
Hopefully that aids in your thinking, while I know it may not "answer" your question. I can hear you, Guider, and Mengler laughing now. But you asked! What was the over/under for how many paragraphs I would write?
Special note ... these three have written each other nearly 6,000 e-mails this year. Most from the workplace. They have real problems...
You know how we do it ... dollars and bucks, pounds and knucks, from the 'Sota to the 'Dota to the Flo'da,
mmmbooyah,
MTF
Hope everyone had a great weekend. I had a suspected theory posed to me from an avid sweetcornforecast / Breeze reader and commenter M. Vujea. Here's what the Michigan native, now residing in Dayton, OH asks ...
"I have a theory that the big weather change is not global warming…it’s that the seasons are changing. The last few years the seasons have come later. In the winter, it doesn't get cold until later in the season and it doesn't snow until later in the season. In addition, the cold lasts longer. It will stretch into April and is not uncommon to snow in the spring. By the same token, the summer doesn't come until later. It doesn’t warm up for good until July. July it heats up and we don’t hit our peak heat until late August. But I'm no weatherman. But MTF is...what are your thoughts?"
Excellent question Vujea. And I'm afraid I cannot give a concrete answer but offer some "weatherman" thoughts. What you have noted about the seasons does indeed seem true recently. This past spring, colder than normal conditions were present Midwest-wide in April an May. In June and July, the heat stayed at bay in many locations from MN to OH. Rockford, IL didn't hit 90 degrees until late August, which was the furthest into the summer they had ever gone. Now, as we officially hit the autumnal equinox today, much of the county will be seeing above normal temperatures, and summerlike weather is in the forecast through this week. Here are some maps below showing exactly what Vujea says ...
Last autumn was quite mild, with some of the warmest Octobers on record in the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
This spring was very cool in much of the country.
But, while your observation may be true locally and recently, it is often tough to grasp long term trends and global and continental trends. For instance this "cool" spring, March-May, which seemed more like a late winter here in the U.S., was the 7th warmest globally since 1880.
Often too, precipitation can have a huge impact on temperatures. MN, IA, and WI saw a great deal of late season snow this past spring. Snow cover certainly played a role in modifying the springtime airmass over these states and can play a role in temperatures downstream (IL, MI, OH). Likewise in June and July, the massive rains of IA, WI, IL, and IN helped moisten the ground and certainly aided in keeping things cooler than normal (due to more evaporation). A drought on the other hand, can lead to less evaporation and warmer temperatures. It's a soil/temperature feedback issue, and something that has played a role during this wet 2008 in much of the Midwest.
So, while the seasons may have seemed to shift lately in God's Country ... the U.S. Midwest ... both long term trends and large geographical trends may or may not show that as well. "Shifting seasons" or "extended and shortened seasons" though, whether it be globally or regionally seem like they would be possible with climate change. And when speaking of "global warming" or climate change, that trend has basically continued statistically unabated over this decade, at least given the data we have currently and in the past.
Hopefully that aids in your thinking, while I know it may not "answer" your question. I can hear you, Guider, and Mengler laughing now. But you asked! What was the over/under for how many paragraphs I would write?
Special note ... these three have written each other nearly 6,000 e-mails this year. Most from the workplace. They have real problems...
You know how we do it ... dollars and bucks, pounds and knucks, from the 'Sota to the 'Dota to the Flo'da,
mmmbooyah,
MTF
Wow, I'm impressed. I think my theory has legs, at least in the midwest. We've been discussing at work how this will affect the future of America. Celebrating Christmas in shorts and flip flops?
Your entry is pretty detailed. I think if Heitz would check out this Breeze entry, he may change his opinion on weather...but not about NIU football.
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He who labors diligently need never despair; for all things are accomplished by diligence and labor.
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